Interprovincial migration and affordability will put upward pressure on home prices in these Canadian cities next year

Contrary to Canada’s large urban centres, major cities in Alberta and Atlantic Canada are expected to see home price growth in 2023.

In its annual Market Survey Forecast, Royal LePage predicts that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will decrease 1.0% year-over-year to $765,171 in the fourth quarter of 2023, with five of the major regions surveyed expected to see aggregate price declines. The four regions where prices are forecast to increase – Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Halifax – are among the more affordable cities in Canada, and have proven to be top destinations for Canadians seeking more affordable housing options.

Enabled by remote working opportunities during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond, the number of buyers relocating out of the major urban centres has accelerated over the last two years. Now faced with higher borrowing costs and living expenses, it is expected that buyer hopefuls from Ontario and British Columbia will continue to seek out affordable housing options in cities like Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax. Price growth in Calgary, Ottawa and Halifax in the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to be led by the more affordable condominium segment. Ottawa, with its healthy employment market, relatively affordable housing and continued positive net migration, is also expected to see positive price appreciation next year.

Calgary

“Unlike Canada’s major urban centres, which saw steep increases during the pandemic boom followed by rapid declines over the last six months, the Calgary market has experienced less drastic swings,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “I expect we will continue to see moderate price growth in the entry-level market, particularly in the condominium segment.”

Edmonton

“Many buyers from outside of Alberta and elsewhere in the province continue to enter the city’s housing market. Since the beginning of February, demand has been strong from Ontario and British Columbia buyers looking to relocate to Edmonton, due to its relative affordability and healthy job market,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate.

Halifax

“While real estate activity in 2023 is unlikely to reach the exuberant levels recorded in the first half of this year, Halifax’s population continues to grow and attract buyers from across Canada and abroad. I anticipate that we will see a return to more normal seasonal trends next year,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic.

Ottawa

“Condominiums will likely see greater price appreciation than other property types, as higher borrowing costs will continue to limit buyers’ purchasing power and push them to the lower end of the market,” said John Rogan, broker of record, Royal LePage Performance Realty. “Local housing activity has been largely motivated by buyers and sellers who are forced to move, including those relocating for work.”

For additional information on all nine of Canada’s major markets, read more here.