Canadian Inflation (September 2024) – October 15th, 2024

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 1.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, down from a 2.0 per cent increase in August. This marks the slowest year-over-year increase since February 2021. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI was unchanged in September. The deceleration in headline CPI was driven by a 10.7 per cent decrease in gasoline prices in September. This drop is largely attributed to lower crude oil prices due to pessimistic outlooks on economic growth, coupled with lower costs associated with switching to winter blends. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.2 per cent in September, matching August's increase. Mortgage interest costs were up 16.7 per cent, and rent was up 8.2 per cent from last September, both decreasing from August's numbers of 18.8 and 8.9 per cent, respectively. Overall, shelter costs rose 5.0 per cent year-over-year in September, down from 5.3 per cent in August. Finally, goods costs fell 1.0 per cent, while services costs rose 4.0 per cent year-over-year. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.0 per cent year-over-year, down from 2.4 per cent in August. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained unchanged from August at 2.3 and 2.4 per cent year-over-year, respectively.    Canada's inflation report for September strongly resembles the patterns of August's report, with different takeaways. Similar to August, the stark dropoff in September's headline CPI is driven by sharp decreases in gasoline prices, with CPI ex-gasoline remaining at 2.2 per cent. Nonetheless, this downward pressure is a function of concerns regarding future economic conditions, thus serving as a proxy for investor/consumer expectations. Moreover, 9 out of 11 special aggregate CPIs published by Statistics Canada fell from August's levels, suggesting that consumption levels are weaker than expected by the Bank of Canada. Despite median and trimmed CPI remaining at 2.3 and 2.4 per cent, the strong dip in headline CPI will raise concerns that inflation is decelerating too quickly due to a weakening economy. Taken together, September's inflation report significantly increases the probability of a 50 basis point cut next week, in hopes of reigniting the economy for our final quarter.  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-september