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2022 national home price forecast reduced to end year slightly below 2021 levels, following quarterly declines across Canada in Q3

Canadian home prices are projected to end the year modestly lower than where they were during the final months of 2021, undoing the price growth seen earlier this year. Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will decrease 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year, due to a continued softening of home prices in a majority of markets across the country in the third quarter (94% of regions in the report).

“September did not bring the typical seasonal lift in the number of homes trading hands in this country, a clear indication that our housing market continues to adjust to higher borrowing costs,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “Home prices follow sales volume trends, which means we will see further softening in the final months of the year. Our revised outlook has national prices at just below where we ended 2021, erasing the gains made in the first quarter of 2022.” 

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 3.3% year-over-year to $774,900 in the third quarter of 2022. However, on a quarterly basis, that figure decreased 4.9%; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home rose 2.0% year-over-year to $806,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.1% year-over-year to $566,100.

With so many would-be buyers waiting on the sidelines, sales activity has weakened across the country.

“While sales volumes are well off the pandemic-fueled peak, many buyers remain active in today’s market. Some are motivated to transact before their locked-in mortgage pre-approval rates expire. Others are encouraged by a rare drop in home prices, the lack of bidding wars and the ability to include conditions in purchase offers,” added Soper. “At the first indication that interest rates have ended their climb and home prices have stabilized, I would expect a sharp increase in those entering the market as the need for housing has not diminished one bit. And regrettably, Canada continues to suffer from a severe shortage of housing supply.”

Read Royal LePage’s third quarter release for national and regional insights. 

Third quarter press release highlights:

  • National aggregate home price for the final quarter of the year forecast at -0.5% 
  • National aggregate home price increased 3.3% year-over-year in third quarter of 2022; decreased 4.9% quarter-over-quarter
  • Prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels; Canada’s national aggregate home price increased 25.4% in Q3 over the same quarter in 2020, and 21.5% over the same quarter in 2019 
  • 58 of the report’s 62 regional markets posted quarterly aggregate home price declines in Q3
  • Prices decline on a quarterly basis in Greater Montreal Area for the first time in more than five years as market activity drops, following trend set in greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver in Q2
  • Major markets in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies show modest quarterly price declines in Q3; Calgary and Edmonton markets faring better than other major cities
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